This estimation is based on projections and publicly available information from Hawaii Housing Finance and Development Corporation, the Hawaii Public Housing Authority, the City and County of Honolulu as well as input from private developers and nonprofit organizations.

With this analysis from the Hawaii Housing Alliance, it’s simple: You just take the number of units by either garden type of high rise by the size of the units by its area median income.

I don’t have all the details of these proposals and I assume no else does, but HHFDC should track this. I think the estimate over five years is about 20,000 units. Some are for sale also but they also need rental Housing Trust Fund support.

Regrettably, my analysis suggests that there is little chance of meeting the governor’s housing goals. Even prior to the Lahaina fires, it was evident that there were insufficient funds available to achieve even a quarter of the projected targets.

Excluding 9% tax credit projects, which should yield around 150 units annually, the state requires an average of $369,000 per unit from the rental Housing Trust Fund for each new 4% tax credit unit.

The lower the rental HTF, the higher the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Program needs to be but there are tax limitations on amount. This estimation applies to garden-style developments with a mix of unit sizes, which cost a lot less than high-rise buildings with elevators.

According to the 2023 summary list released by HHFDC, $135,000 per unit was allocated from the rental Housing Trust Fund for 4% credits at 60% area median income. This was a mix of types and sizes. One was as high as $312,000.

Additionally, it is a misconception that workforce housing units (ranging from 61% to 140% AMI) do not require funding. While higher AMI levels necessitate less funding ($261,000 average), all possibilities must be considered.

It is disappointing that HHFDC has not conducted this analysis, leaving advocates like myself to navigate without access to their data.

Bottom line: State and counties, either need to tells us where the money is going to come from or revise the estimated number of units that can be built or preserved and when.

Maybe all the proposals and planning are a reasonable idea so in case the state, counties or federal government finds the money developments can go forward as quick as possible.

I just doubt the state or county budgets have room for years without a tax increase. We are going to need some new creative ideas to fund housing.