Hawaii is facing an “above normal” chance of significant wildfires for the three months leading up to the first anniversary of the Aug. 8 fires, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

The warning for May through July comes on the back of a wetter-than-expected winter and ahead of what’s forecast to be a dry and hot period. Record-breaking January rains fed the growth of Hawaii’s wildfire-prone grasses, while the summer will dry them out and create more risk of wildfires — especially in leeward areas.

“We’ve got a lot of grass out there,” University of Hawaii wildfire researcher Clay Trauernicht said. “Lahaina’s back to pre-fire basically. People are worried. Rightly so.”

Meteorologists did not expect the situation last year, when they forecast that Hawaii’s droughts would persist through a dry winter typically associated with El Nino periods.

El Ninos typically relax trade winds in Hawaii, warming the sea surface temperatures and often leading to winter droughts. The National Weather Service in early December reported a 54% chance of the El Nino being “historically strong” and dry for Hawaii.

But the weather patterns from late December through January were “just odd and not what we would have expected,” NWS hydrologist Kevin Kodama said.

All-time January rainfall records on Maui were broken in Kula, Kihei and at Ulupalakua Ranch, with up to 416% more rain than average.

Lahainaluna, Kahului Airport, Mahinahina, Waikapu Country Club and Wailuku rain gages posted their highest totals since 2004.

“In Hawaii it’s the details that matter because of the terrain interactions and the microclimates,” Kodama said. “Small deviations in the weather pattern and the climate pattern can make big differences in what we get in terms of wind and rain.”

On Oahu and Kauai, several January rain records dating back to the early 2000s were broken, too. The Big Island has generally faced below-average rainfall since the beginning of 2024.

The period may appear somewhat normal when it averages out “but when you look at the details and what transpired, for parts of the state it’s not going to look like El Nino at all,” Kodama said.

Forecasters now anticipate a climactic shift from El Nino to La Nina some time between June and August. La Nina can make winters cooler and wetter, but the opposite is true for summers, when they’re associated with hotter and drier spells amidst stronger trade winds.

Those winds will be a “wildcard variable” over the next three months, according to the Northern California Geographic Area Coordination Center, which coordinates wildfire predictions for Hawaii.

High winds were a key factor in the Aug. 8 fires, including the conflagration that destroyed much of Lahaina and killed at least 101 people.

This year is projected to be even hotter than 2023, the world’s hottest year on record, which does not bode well for Hawaii in La Nina, according to Ryan Longman, a co-developer of the Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange.

“A really hot, dry summer with a bunch of fuels that were left over from a wet, cool winter could be a recipe for disaster,” Longman said. “But again, we never really know how these things are going to play out.”

Invasive grasses were identified as a key factor in wildfire’s increased footprint statewide. Those grasses burn easily, replace native flora and exacerbate Hawaii’s wildfire problem through what experts call the “grass-fire cycle.”

Greater fuels management was among key recommendations made the House Wildfire Prevention Working Group formed by state lawmakers in the the aftermath of Aug. 8. Several bills were introduced at the Legislature this year specifically to address the issue.

And because of the rapid growth of the fire-adapted grasses across the state, vegetation management will need to be a consistent priority, researcher Trauernicht said.

“We’re kind of running into this realization — or hopefully — that from a prevention perspective these actions are going to have to be continuous,” Trauernicht said.

Civil Beat’s coverage of Maui County is supported in part by a grant from the Nuestro Futuro Foundation.